Thursday, March 23, 2006

Alphonso Soriano

He says he is going to play left field this season.

With that uncertainty cleared-up, I am bumping him up to the $30+ range. 36 HR/30 SB last season is impossible to ignore.

His 2B-eligibility is also.

I know his splits were bad last year, but even if you assume he hits .224 for the year, he'd still go 22/32. Of course, he won't hit that poorly and become 2006's Corey Patterson.

What is not facotred into splits, and why is is false to just double away stats, is the comfort a player develops playing in one place for 81 games. I do not think Soriano will be a .300+ hitter in RFK, but I do not think he will be a .220 either. Without the crutch of a good hitters' ballpark, I also do not believe he will develop habits at home that won't translate on the road. (See Colorado.)

As vital for Roto is his SB ability, and that will not go away regardless of ballpark. And there is no reason to believe Soriano has lost any base-stealing skill. He stole 30 in 32 attempts last season. Even the sabremetricians would say he should steal bases!

Until Vidro and Guillen get hurt, there will be considerably fewer ABs available for Ryan Church, Marlon Byrd and Brandon Watson. Those are three players vying for 650 plate appearances at one position. Adjust all three downward accordingly.

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