Wednesday, March 08, 2006

NL 2B $$$ Ranges

$30+ Chase Utley, Alphonso Soriano

$24+ Ryan Freel, Richie Weeks, Jeff Kent

$17+ Marcus Giles

$13+ Craig Biggio, Jose Vidro

$7+ Ray Durham, Dan Uggla, Todd Walker, Josh Barfield, Luis Gonzalez, Junior Spivey, Orlando Hudson, Jose Castillo

<$6 Kaz Matsui, Anderson Hernandez, Mark Bellhorn, Josh Wilson, Jerry Hairston, Aaron miles, Neifi Perez, Tony Womack

There are a lot of 2B in the NL. This is a function of having two more teams than the AL. For this reason, there is are not many back-ups listed. No doubt some of those non-listees will make a fantasy contribution, but why draft them when you can get the starter and then pluck the non-listees from the free agent pool once you know who will contribute?

Several of the 2B listed in the $7+ range are at the high end and could conceivably been placed in the $13+ range. These are Ray Durham, Orlando Hudson and Jose Castillo. Only Durham slid due to age/injury concerns. The other two resulted from hesitations on my part to advance them beyond their proven production.

Both could improve. I can see Hudson stealing 10+ more bases versus last season after being freed from Billy Beane Wanna Be Land, and Castillo was young when he broke-in and injured since. If he stays healthy, he could be a $17+ hitter. The Pirates love his defense so there is ample playing time even if he starts slowly.

I also hesitated to list Soriano in the $30+ range, but backed-off because he should still steal 30 bases even disgruntled. Hitting in RFK will suppress his HRs and likely his AVG. A .265/21 HR/33 SB doesn't quite get me over the $30 barrier. None of the numbers are strong enough to bury the competition in any category early i.e Jose Reyes can hit .265 but his 60+ SB will capture the category early. Also, 21 HR acts the same way as 33 SB, and the .265 AVG in 600+ ABs will have to be compensated for at some point in the season.

However, his past performance history will make him overtop the $30 barrier and that is why he is there.

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