Wednesday, March 29, 2006

Victor Diaz

On the heels of the Joel Guzman post Monday evening, I want to see if I can provide a contrarian indicator of the decision the Mets will make on Victor Diaz.

It has taken most of the spring, but Victor Diaz is out-performing Xavier Nady. I do not think this surprises anyone in the Rotocommentariat, but things did not look good for the first half of the month.

When that was combined with the price the Mets paid for Nady (Mike Cameron), the obvious conclusion was he would start in RF. That is still the likely outcome as the Mets seems to decide early who is going to play and ignore performance (see Anderson Hernadez vs Jeff Keppinger at 2B).

However, I expect Diaz to provide the same, if not better numbers, for a fraction of the price. With Nady as the nominal starter entering drafts, he will naturally attract higher bids than a non-starter. Somewhere in the $8 range. Diaz may go for $3 or $4 but $1 seems more likely.

When is all said and done, I expect both player to grab 300 ABs and hit 15 HR or so with 50 RBI. You can either pay $8 for that or $1. I know what I would do.

No comments: