Friday, March 10, 2006

NL 3B $$$ Ranges

$30+ David Wright, Miguel Cabrera, Morgan Ensberg, Aramis Ramirez

$23+ Scott Rolen, Chad Tracy

$17+ Chipper Jones, Ryan Zimmerman, Pedro Feliz, Garrett Atkins

$13+ Corey Koskie, Edwin Encarnacion

$7+ Bill Mueller, Bill Hall, Joe Randa, Vinny Castilla

<$6 David Bell, Abraham Nunez, Alex Gonzalez, Freddie Sanchez, Rich Aurilia, Wilson Betemit

David Wright is the best of the lot. His 15+ SB puts him ahead of Cabrera. Scott Rolen is not in the top range due to my concerns about his shoulder injury. As I am not a doctor, these are only based on my ability to intuit.

Chipper Jones could easily be near the top if he stayed healthy all season, but that has not occurred since 2003.

Garrett Atkins could be higher, but he has the Ian Stewart factor deflating his value, and his Coors-aided stats just weren't that impressive - 13/89/.287. I could see him breaking the $23 barrier, though. I just do not believe he is worth that once the Coors effect is wiped from your eyes. 13 HR? What's that translate into away from Coors?

Edwin Encarnacion is in an intriguing player. He has 5 HR this spring and hit 9 in 211 ABs last season. Those pro-rate nicely to 20+ in 500 ABs.

In the minors, he also had double-digit stolen bases every season except his first as a 17-year-old in the GCL in 2000. Also notable is his walk rate which is not horrendous at 10:1. It is certainly not great, but he is no Angel Berroa (18 walks in 608 ABs last season with the Royals.)

As a result, I do not see his AVG being any worse than last season's was and expect a slight improvement. If this occurs, he could provide a season similar to Felipe Lopez's last year - 20+ HR 15 SB). And if he continues to hit this spring, I can see him entering the $17+ range by draft day.

No comments: