The Pirates are going as far as their starting pitching will take them, and it seems management is expecting that to be far. After all, it did nothing to address the starting rotation but pluck discarded Victor Santos from the Brewers in the Rule 5 Draft. The worry is he wasn't helped by up-and-coming pitching coach stud Mike Maddux while everyone else on that staff was.
Zach Duke seems to be a very hot property entering this season. I heard a commentator on XM Radio's Fantasy Focus show say he would bid up to $20 on him at a draft. I hope he is correct, but I am more inclined towards labelling that irrational exurberance.
Duke had a tremendous ERA (1.81) and a decent WHIP (1.20) with mediocre strikeouts (6 per 9 innings) and mediocre walks (2.44 per 9 innings). These are not the kind of peripherals I'd expect from a 1.81 ERA. Nor is that type of ERA I'd expect from a 1.20 WHIP. That WHIP puts him in the high 3s for ERA.
And no pitcher with a high 3s ERA is worth $20. (If this were a 5X5, 130 ks in 200 innings isn't either!) Temper your expectations if you have Duke or plan to draft him. Better yet, take advantage of the exuberance and deal him as if he could be a $20 pitcher on the Pirates.
The bullpen looks like it will be headed by Mike Gonzalez. Salomon Torres and Roberto Hernandez could be in the mix, too, and this bears watching. While Billy Wagner is a stud, I always have reservations with lefty closers, and given Gonzalez is no Billy Wagner, my reservations are greater than usual.
One reservation is specific to MGonz and the other is a generality. Specifically, MGonz walked a lot of hitters last season, and this is completely out of line with his professional numbers. I have concerns about his knee injury. Another consideration is the new managers past decisions. After Jim Tracy's experience with Yhancy Brazoban blowing up last season , I would not expect him to stick with MGonz if he walks batters at the same rate.
The generality concerning lefty closers is the unfavorable match-ups presented by predominantly right-handed hitters. A corollary of that is the availabilty of quality right-handed pinch hitters. This always leads me towards betting on the righty reliever to close. If Hernandez maintians his form from last season, I consider him the favorite to back-up MGonz. After all, Pittsburgh fans are accustomed to old righty relievers closing.
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If you care to read, here's a post about the Pirates I did over on my blog...
Pittsburgh Pirates: A work in progress....Again.
I'm gonna go off topic a bit and talk about the Pittsburgh Pirates. The last time the Pirates made the playoffs and had a winning season all happened at the same instance. The year was 1992. Braves fans will remember the battles between the Braves and Pirates. This was a big rivalry for it's time.
Alot has changed since then, and some might go as far as saying Pittsburgh has been under the curse of Barry Bonds. '92 was his last voyage on the pirate ship. Every year I look at Pittsburgh's roster and see the unrecognizable names. There a team that is in a constant rebuild mode. Take a look at the Pirate outfield this century. Before being traded to San Diego Brian Giles was the only staple in LF while the other spots were leased out for a year. That role has now been taken over by another LF Jason Bay who has played 2 consecutive years. It's a makeshift team year in year out. Do they give up too easy? Quite possibly so. There in the NL Central competing with Cubs, Cards, Brewers, Astros but c'mon you can't give up on your team so easily.
This offseason I've been impressed with their aggressive dealing. The Pirates have acquired Damaso Marte, Joe Randa, Sean Casey, Roberto Hernandez, and maybe Jeromy Burnitz. Here's a mock lineup card: CF Duffy, 3B Randa, 1B Casey, LF Bay, RF Burnitz, C Doumit, 2b Castillo, SS J. Wilson. It's not a bad team, but still not quite a divisional champion.
On the mound this team needs to ride the waves of Oliver Perez and Zach Duke. These two are the future of Pirate pitching. Fogg and Wells were brought over from the White Sox back in 2002; the Pirates actually got the better end of the deal. Wells is supposedly the #1 ace but like the rest of the team has struggled. In the end, this team may come close to or at .500 like this year's Brew Crew but there gonna have to gel together much sooner than later.
1/4/06
Thought I would add my post from my blog at http://buccoblog.mlblogs.com
First of all, I am in the camp that Sean Burnett will be our 5th starter out of ST. Until the org says absolutely, positively, 100%, Snell or someone else is the 5th, I'm sticking with Burnett.
I happened to buzz by The Baseball Think Factory and gobbled up their new ZIPS projection for the Pirates today. http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org
*puts on the optimisim rally hat*
After running a few quick analysis, I came across one very significant projection.. using Duke, Perez, Wells, Maholm, and Burnett as the starting 5, they project out with a 2.02 K/BB rate.
I ran to go get Bill James predictions to see how they matched up but, unfortunately, James didn't project out Burnett or Maholm. BUT, for Wells, Duke, and Perez the total was very much the same.. 2.04.
So, I went to work and dug even further using the new wave tango master Dips 3.0 beta version (j/k tango) to see what would come of it all and, sure enough, 2.01.. again.
Wow.
The Pirates haven't seen a 2.00+ K/BB ratio staff with low ERA's since Schmidt and Lieber days in 1998 (they lost 93 too - but not because of the arms they had).
The projection of 2.00+ is significantly higher than I ever thought possible from a starting rotation where 3 of the 5 guys have never thrown more than 85 innings in the bigs, and one other player hasn't thrown more than 103 since 2004.
Well, I dug a bit further.. of the 9 NL teams last year that had a 2.00 K/BB ratio or better, the combined winning percentage of those teams was (are you sitting down?)... .519. Three of the 9 teams were small market teams.. the Pads, Marlins, and Brewers.
Even more confusing was the fact James and ZIPS had these starters averaging almost 6 IP per game and allowing only 2.8 ER.. that is over 134 games!
Now, I'm adding like crazy to get the projected W/L record and I can't believe what I am coming up with.. a .472 winning percentage. What the..???
Ready to choke??
These same 5 starters are projected to go 44 - 49 over the 134 games where they only allow 2.8 ER in 6 IP.
Huh? With the great pen we have??
*pulls off rally cap and stomps on it*
Well, needless to say, that was where the fun ended. As I continued to dig thru all James projections, ZIPS, linear weights and batted runs, blah - blah - blah, I quickly came to the realization that nobody, not one projection system, gave any value whatsoever to our projected offensive lineup.
Other than Bay and Casey that shoot off the map, it is horrible:
-- Burnitz: .240/.311/.412 with 10 HR in 541 AB
-- Castillo: .277/.325/.394 in 437 AB
-- J Wilson: .272/.314/.395 in 628 AB
-- Doumit: .264/.327/.424 in 387 AB
-- Randa: .277/.332/.440 in 534 AB
-- Duffy: .287/.338/.384 in 484 AB
There are some bright points as well..
-- Craig Wilson projects out at .266/.363/.484 with 20 HRs, but, unfortunately, he will seemingly be sitting on the bench or traded;
-- Nate projects out at .283/.343/.406 in 508 AB and even manages 9 HR (as I look back at Burnitz's numbers). But, he too will be on the bench or in AAA.
-- Eldred projects out at .250/.300/.502 with 32 HR in 476 AB, but he'll be in AAA ..as he should be.
But, you know, for about 45 minutes there, I actually found something to hope for this year.. a memory refresher, if you will, of the powerful 70's, we are family, rah-rah, feel good stuff.
It faded fast.
Linear weights, Base Runs, UZR, Dial, PECOTA, FIPS, DIPS, CHIPS, ZIPS, and LIPS, all agree..
..the Pirates are going to pitch their way to an 85 - 90 L season next year unless this org finds a way to pick up some offensive talent to go with the arms.
Buccoblog,
First, a very nice site you have.
Second, I noticed Dukes ZIPS projection (first seen on your site this AM) and I do not think that is far off. It is not worth $20 in Roto though.
I was curious to see different sites project the same k/BB ratio. That tells me they are using the same inputs.
The 2:1 ratio is good but the scale is close to 6 ks for every 3 walks - not especially daunting.
The Burnitz projection is way too low unless some inside info is available that says he is hurt.
I don't see the Pirates doing any better than last season.
rotomusing..
I have started to break down the NLCD a bit more and posted an article called Limiting Offensive Opportunities.
One of the challenges facing fantasy selections are realistic performance projections. I think you will find that, not only do I try to remain objective, but rational.
You said "[Duke isn't] worth $20 in Roto though... I don't see the Pirates doing any better than last season."
Unfortunately for Duke, there aren't enough LH batters to face in the NLCD. However, here is a wild card selection for you - Paul Maholm. Paul should be seriously undervalued (I am guessing here) because of his lower K/9 spread across the minors and his lack of big league service time.
But I am here to tell you, Paul Maholm can get RH batters out despite not being a reverse-lefty.
If the Pirate staff put up 6.5 K/9 numbers, walk fewer than NLCD division average, and keep up the higher GB/FB rates, with the crushing blow to the Brewers offense, the Cards and Cubs injury potential, and the Astros lack of D and bats, I think you are going to be very surprised at how well these Pirate play this year under Tracy.
Sleeper pick?
Maholm and Jack Wilson. I see Jack back to a .320+ BA in the 2-hole with Bay, Casey and Randa behind him. ;)
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