Dave Pinto has a post stating Preston Wilson is no better than Wily Tavares based on thier 2005 win shares total.
My initial thought was how did a player whose main attribute is getting on-base via hits that don't travel 90' better than a 7-year veteran who has consistently performed at an All-Star level (assuming his team stinks and hosts the game)?
As I am as statistically knowledgable as anyone (more so as I have had several courses in statistics on the college level - undergrad and graduate,) I first decided to examine what goes into a "win share".
Talk about assumptions! There are enough there to make so many asses that the word will be spelled "ass" because the world would run out of people before all the assumptions were exhausted!
As a general rule-of-thumb, win shares allows for quick comparison between two players. (Although I imagine the quickness in calculating it only arrived with the Excel spreadsheet.) It is when it is used as an absolute that its usefulness becomes strained.
The first assumption is assigning a relative value to the contribution of hitting and pitching/defense to a win. My nihilistic side told me I need not go any further before concluding that win shares is a tool no more valuable than any of the other time-tested statistics that make up your typical 4X4 Roto league.
Advanced quantitification seems to be a sure fire way into a front office, but it does not negate Occum's razor or parsimony. It may make one more impressive in a job interview or in a discussion with other Roto players who are not versed in statistical calculations, but unless it tells me something above and beyond what other simpler percentages and ratios do, then count me unimpressed.
No matter what you say a singles hitter is not better than a HR hitter just as you cannot convince me that having zero-carbs makes mayonaisse a health food!
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2 comments:
What a deal the Astros got for Wilson. 1/4M then at the end of the season either buyout for 500K or exercise the 3/24 opt.
As for the Wilson/Taveras post on the other site. Taveras is not better than Wilson. Taveras was just a rookie last year and you can't compare one season to another guys' whole career. C'mon, Preston Wilson has made a living being a cleanup hitter while Taveras is a slap hitting singles guy just like you stated.
The Astros did well. He came cheaper than Encarnacion.
I am not sure how far Pdub's D has fallen but he is certainly a better hittere then Juan Encarnacion.
Win shares is a cute term but when it makes Taveres better than a clean-up hitter, you know something is amiss.
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