My first reaction to writing anything about the Reds is to yawn. Has there been a less exciting team this off-season? Have you looked at their pitching?
Even if Adam Dunn, Wily Mo Pena and Austin Kearns have career years, this team will be luycky to reach .500. Rototimes lists Aaron Harang at the top of the rotation. He was Roto good last year posting a 3.83 ERa and 1.27 WHIP, but Roto and real life sometimes diverge and this could be one of those times. I notice his strikeout rate remained the same and his walk rate went way down. More balls were put in play and his ERA and WHIP improved? I am sure there is a massaged number out there explaining this in a positive way. My intuition says this was luck.
At least one of the Dunn/Kearns/Pena trio will have a career year, and given full-time ABs and levels already established by Dunn, Pena and Kearns seem most likely, but the two may combine for 400 strikeouts on the season.
The bullpen is manned by David Weathers and other equally non-descript pitchers. Weathers will close until something better comes along or he is traded. I know the Rotocommentariat will be drooling over Clevelands Fernando Cabrera and opining Wickman should be traded, but the closer who will be dealt first is David Weathers. He is more a workhorse middle reliever than one inning type, and this is always in demand.
The question is who closes when he leaves? Rotoworld's Todd Coffey? He doesn't strikeout anyone and gives up a lot of hits, too. Is a lead safe at Cynergy Field with that profile?
Ryan Wagner? He strikes out more batters than Coffey but appears just as hittable. However, he did begin last season as if he were going to actually live up to the hype, but he was then inujured and came back ineffective.
I don't know who the back-up closer is, but I advise watching closely. At the very least, you should take a flyer on a Reds reliever and hope to get lucky.
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2 comments:
Blah, on the Reds. They should have made moves last summer when everyone was after Kearns, Pena, Dunn. Even Griffey. Whenever Dunn hits free agency he won't be there anymore. He's making what, $8-$9M next year?? Pena can be traded for good starting pitching, something the Reds need.
I like Weathers. He's a good reliever. He'll probably be traded by the deadline. Look at his '04 resume Mets/Astros/Marlins. He's a journeyman and a better late inning relief guy than closer. Remember last year when the Reds cut Danny Graves and every team was after him? Then he signed with the Mets and they cut him. A fast a career goes downhill.
What is distressing is the Reds do not appear to have an obvious person to step in.
Maybe a failed starter goes in.
I just wonder how the Reds will decide which of those many options to select.
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