Boston Red Sox

This thumbnail sketch is a little more difficult as the team has glaring holes at SS and CF. 1B is also very much up in the air, but the Sawx currently have Kevin Youkilis, the Moneyball-epitathed God of Walks.

The Sawx claim he will develop 20 HR power. Maybe. He will be 27 on Opening Day and has never hit more than 10 HRs in any season. However, if his last two seasons were pro-rated over 600 ABs, his totals would have put him in the 20 HR range. Plus, OBP has been decent, admittedly in very few ABs.

One caveat, though, is that tiny number of ABs garnered as a Red Sock. He had 208 ABs in 2004 and only 78 last seson! I think he is at risk for over-exposure, and the question remains whether the Sawx will weather the adjustment period necessary for Youkilis to breakthrough, if he can at all.

I can see the team struggling with a powerless 1B and making a move to remedy that. Obviously, this makes Youkilis a risky Roto proposition if he goes for a $10+ in a draft.

Right now, his back-up is the Rob Neyer favorite, Roberto Petagine. At 35, there isn't much long-term Roto value, but he could be a better $1 gamble than Youkilis for 8+ times that amount. He has been an OBP machine everywhere, and I suspect he would contunie to do so in whatever ABs the Sawx give him. The only thing going against him is Youkilis is 8 years younger and teams are prone to love projectability over current ability.

If Youkilis struggles with regular ABs, then Petagine will get a full-time chance. And if the Sawx search for a trade alternative takes a couple weeks and Roberto is hot, he could be a great $1 corner on a successful 2006 Roto squad.

Jon Papelbon looks like he is going to be a highly-hyped SP going into 2006. He should be a good risk for a handful of dollars. His strikeouts were good but he walked way too many batters in his 34 inning debut last season. Putting 4.50 men on base via walk every 9 innings has all the making of disaster. However, his walk rates were very good in the minors.

My guesstimate would be a season somewhere between Scott Kazmir's 2004 and 2005 seasons - an ERA in the mid-4s and a WHIP over 1.40. Not great, but encouraging. However, a 1.40+ WHIP in 175 innings is a killer on a team's WHIP. I would target him if I were a bailing team.

Craig Hansen has generated a lot of futrue-closer hype and deservedly so, but I do not see him getting a chance until late in the year - at best. Foulke will be given the opportunity to reclaim the roll he has excelled in with Mike Timlin backing-up.

A sleeper minor leaguer is Brandon Moss. His star has faded some after a mediocre AA season, but he was only 21. His opportunity to contribute late heavily depends on what the Sawx do with their CF opening. The longer the Opening Day CF is signed, the lesser the chance of Moss getting any shot in 2006. If he opens 2006 ripping the cover off the ball in AAA, then only an OF injury keeps him from a cup of coffee.

While Dustin Pedroia gets most of the rookie hype this spring and Jacoby Ellsbury occupies most of the future-CF talk do not forget Moss.