San Diego Padres

Thank you to Baseball Musings for linking to my Coco Crisp post yesterday. It made a beautiful 55+ degree late January day even better. Thank you again to Dave and to all the readers who came over. Keep coming back. Or better said, I hope to keep you coming back.

If the season were to begin today, the Padres would be starting 35-year-old career back-up Doug Mirabelli at catcher. I have liked him over the past few seasons as he filled a #2 catcher slot with a handful of HR in very minimal ABs.

When a back-up I like for Roto purposes gets dealt to a club where he will get the opportunity to play regularly, it usually gets me excited. I quickly pro-rate his numbers to get a back-of-the-envelope idea of how he will do. In this case, I could only wonder why SD "threw away" Mark Loretta.

After examining Doug Mirabelli's professional careeer, I wish he had stayed in Boston. The good feelings I had towards him would have remained unexamined. Unfortunately, that can no longer be the case.

My first reaction was how long he has been in the majors - seven full seasons and parts of three others. The next was the minimal amount of ABs he has received - the next time he gets 400 ABs will be the first time! The third was who is going to split the catching duties with him.

And things got uglier! Rototimes lists Dave Ross as his back-up with Todd Greene behind him and Pete LaForest behind him. Ross excited Roto teams looking for that minimal AB catcher who could contribute since his 10 HR 124 AB performance in 2003. Since then, he hasn't combined to hit 10 HR in 330 ABs.

Todd Greene is that minimal AB catcher though. He hit 7 HR in 125 ABs last year and 10 in each the prior seasons before that. Unfortunately, his defense is not good. This means he is not a viable back-up to an even older starting catcher who will likely need to sit half the time.

Pete LaForest is younger than any of the others and is closest to any succesful season - last year's AAA one with the Durham Bulls where he hit 21 HRs in 270 ABs. He has consistently hit 15 or so HRs each season. He looks to be the best of the 2006 options - as long as expectations are kept low.

More strategically, one should attempt to discern why Padres management would put this group of players behind the plate. (A Mike Piazza signing does nothing to change this analysis.)

With this group of mediocrity, one must interpret this as a signal there is something better on the way. At AA, one of the Padres top propects is catcher George Kottaras, a 22-year-old OBP machine. His 2004 .415 OBP in Low A was followed by a .393 one in 2005 between High A and AA. His power is somewhat low (11 HR last year), but he is young enough to still develop more, especially given the physical and mental rigors of his position.

For a guess as to how he may develop, I cannot help seeing the statistical similarity between Kottaras and Ramon Hernandez. Both are at the same level at the same age and with simialr SLG. Kottaras's walk totals are slightly better. More inportantly, though, is Hernandez wasn't a Roto asset until his 3rd full season. (I recognize 15/60 for a catcher is good but a .254 AVG in 450 ABs is not. 2001 was also a year with no steroid testing whatsoever.)

With the slew of old guys the Padres have brought in, I have little doubt Kottaras is going to get another full-season to develop before getting a clear shot at the starting role in 2007. If Mike Piazza is signed, then this timetable is a lock. But he may not be a valuable Roto catcher until a season or two later.