Wednesday, January 11, 2006

Full-Valued Keepers

As a rule, I will keep full-valued players who are All-Star caliber. $36 for Ichiro or Tejada doesn't bother me. $35 for Derek Lee doesn't either.

When the salary of these players becomes prohibitive is during trades. If I am offered a $35 Derek Lee for a $2 Ryan Church, I say no. Not because I believe, in any way, that Church will match Lee, but because I immediately see the $33 difference and consider that sum enough to land another All-Star caliber hitter and have Church.

The risk question is whether I can find a player as good as Church for $2 or if I can find a player close to Lee for $33. As long as one is willing to spend money, any player can be had. (Take note voters for general manager of the year.)

Right now, Church is a nominal starter in Washington. He hit .287 with 9 HR last season in 268 ABs as a rookie. With more playing time, their is 15 HR upside with a good AVG. That is a mid-teens $$ player.

How do you get that in a draft for minimal money? Remember every team can complete for the cheapest players. Can you identify who this season's Ryan Church's will be? Can you identify who the $30+ players will be?

While that question is rhetorical, I'll answer it "no" and "yes" respectively.

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