Detroit Tigers

The Tigers are tough to figure. As I look over the roster, I am struck by the fact that I see lots of playing time complications for those players who broke through last season – Chris Shelton, Placido Polanco, Curtis Granderson, Nook Logan, and maybe (again) Carlos Pena. All of those players had seasons that left Roto teams wanting more.

I can’t say with conviction that is going to be satisfied. Shelton and Pena are competing for the same position. One of them could DH but Dmitri Young takes that spot. If the 1B and DH spots in the line-up were split that would leave each player with about 400 or so plate appearances – around what they had last season. I cannot confidently say any of those players will do considerably better in the same number of ABs.

In the OF, Magglio Ordonez, Craig Monroe, Curtis Granderson and Nook Logan will have to divide the ABs. At season’s end, I figured there was no way Logan would grab any ABs in 2006, but new manager Jim Leyland has made comments that lead to speculation that Nook will start in CF. This pushes Curtis Granderson, and his 8 HR in 166 AB debut, towards a corner OF spot. Both of which are occupied by more accomplished OFers, Magglio Ordonez and Craig Monroe.

At 2B, Placido Polanco hit a rather empty .331. - 9 HR, 54 RBI and 4 SB. I’d have expected a few more RBI than that. Given he does not walk often, I expect the AVG to drop 30+ points, but I expect him to be drafted on the .331 AVG; thus he will be overpriced by $5-$10 on draft. (Should go for $9-$17. Will go for $18-$24.)

A much better play for the same production will be his DP partner, Carlos Guillen. A miasma of injury clouds the perception of the former Mariner, but he has hit .320 in his first two seasons in Detroit. I do not expect that to change. I do not expect him to match his stellar 2004 season, but getting halfway there will better Polanco’s production and should come for less on draft day.

On the mound, I have already addressed Jeremy Bonderman here.

Todd Jones was signed to close, and I do not see anyone taking the job from him. If he fails, Fernando Rodney would be the favorite as he got shots the in the previous few seasons. The wildcard is Jim Leyland. No one knows which middle reliever(s) he will think has the guts to do it. Watch this aspect closely in spring training. Does he seem to say positive things about one of the relievers? Does he keep putting the same pitcher in tough spots – at the end of the game towards the end of the month, in the 3rd and 4th inning in the beginning of the month? Matt Mantei just signed there and becomes the most accomplished closer of the bunch.

On the farm, everyone knows about Justin Verlander and Joel Zumaya. Watch both, but I do not have the confidence either will be immediate contributors in Detroit.