Wednesday, January 11, 2006

Kansas City

The most distinguishing mark the Royals made this off-season is the plethora of end of the 25-man-roster additions they signed – Doug Mientkiewicz, Mark Grudzielanek, Paul Bako, Elmer Dessens, Joe Mays, Scott Elarton.

I’ve covered various players that I like in previous posts (Here for Emil Brown. Here for Esteban German.)

A player I do like that shouldn’t get too much, if any, hype is catcher John Buck. He hit 12 HRs last season and that total is very good for a catcher nowadays. He will enter his third season, and an expectation of improvement due to experience is not irrational. What would be is if I expected that improvement to take him north of .280 with 25 HR, but an improvement to .250-.260 with 15 HR is not. For a $1 or $2, that is nice from a position that is punted more often than a Jets football.

One comment about the RBI totals for the Royals this season. Given a very weak line-up (current definition: Emil Brown as the uncontested as a #5 hitter.), I do not expect the leaders, Sweeney and Brown, to drive in more than 90. There just won’t be enough men on base. This isn’t a Moneyball analysis based on OBP. This is a plain ol’ the hitters stink one. There is really nothing to fear from the bottom four hitters in the line-up. I know Buck is one of them, but hitting .260 with 15 HR is not fearful when the players in front and in back of him will not match that power.

On the mound, I can state with confidence that I do not like the risk/reward equation of any starter. As none, will rack-up in-the-teens Ws, the innings-weighted ERA/WHIP contribution is too high. Zach Greinke would have been an exception, but he was so bad last year, that I would rather have another team draft him. If he reverts back to his rookie form, then I will whole-heartedly pay full-price in a trade for him.

In the bullpen, MacDougal will open as the closer, and Abriorix Burgos is so well known that there shouldn’t be any surprises.

On the farm, 2006 begins and ends with Alex Gordon. He will not be unknown but should be grabbed at the same time Brandon Wood is in a minor league draft or bid to $20 if he makes the team out of Spring Training. His plate discipline and power in college are good, but college doesn't count. In the AFL, he hit .260 in 50 ABs and drew 12 walks! Mark Teahan watch out!

No comments: