2006 Propsects

The 2006 ETAs not likely to make the Opening Day rosters are the following:

C: Russ Martin LAD
1B: Justin Huber KC
2B: Dustin Pedroia BOS
2B: Kevin Frandsen SF
2B: Omar Quintanilla COL
3B: Andy Marte CLE
SS: Stephen Drew AZ
OF: Delmon Young TB
OF: Nick Markakis BAL
OF: Carlos Quentin AZ
OF: Jason Kubel MIN
SP: Chad Billingsley LAD
SP: Justin Verlander DET
SP: Joel Zumaya DET
SP: Dustin McGowan TOR
SP: Anthony Reyes STL
SP: Anthony Lerew
SP: Jeff Neiman
SP: Scott Olsen
SP: Jeremy Sowers
SP: Cole Hamels
SP: Glenn Perkins
RP: Jonathan Broxton LAD
RP: Craig Hansen BOS
RP: Joey Devine ATL

I tend towards hitting prospects because they can play part-time and benefit a team in three categories (HR, RBI, SB) despite AVG. And even AVG holds little risk because the rookie must produce or be sent back to AAA instead of sitting on the major league bench.

A rookie starting pitcher can pitch at a 4.50/1.40 level and be doing a job good enough to keep pitching every 5th day. However, those ratios are not good enough for a Roto team. I know pitchers can also get Ws, but I do not consider wins to be a reliable category. A simple example: Starting pitchers get 5 starts per month. If he wins two games, he will finish with 12 Ws. The tough part is those three non-wins. Do you really want 15 innings of 4.50/1.40?

Now that I have exposed my bias, you can understand why I forgot to keep Scott Olsen off this list. I do expect him to make the roster, but occasionally, I overlook a rookie pitcher. An error, but not one likely to harm my team as I consider rookie SP as too risky.

If I forget about Jason Kubel, I cede a competitive advantage that I cannot make-up. With a rookie pitcher, I can always grab a middle reliever and do nearly as well.

Of the pitchers listed, Billingsley and Verlander are worth the risk. Anthony Reyes could be a decent pick-up also. Cole Hamels is a deep sleeper of mine because I think he could fill the Ryan Madsen role and excel. Jeremy Sowers could also surprise. Any of the reliever prospects are good risks. I rank them Hansen, Devine and Broxton for Roto purposes.

I wouldn’t concern myself too much with Omar Quintanilla. His power dropped off last season in AAA, and it wasn’t that great to begin with – 13 in 2004 between High A and AA. And in 128 major leagues Abs, he hit none. His speed is non-existent for a middle infielder, too. No power? No speed? No need to waste brain space.

A hitting prospect player who may not be as familiar is Kevin Frandsen. He rapidly progressed from High A to AAA last season posting a combined. He only hit 6 HR. He did steal 21 bases but was caught 15 times. Neither skill looks like it will carry over to the majors. His one outstanding statistic is AVG - .335 last season. His OBP was .399 but that was accomplished with 23 HBPs and only 32 BBs. He is clearly a player to watch for 2006 as the Giants 2B Ray Durham is brittle, but I do not see him blocking one of my favorite minor league prospects, Marcus Sanders. (BTW: Mr. Manuel has Sanders ranked as the 2nd best 2B prospect behind Howie Kendrick.)

Martin, Huber and Pedroia merit more attention than Frandsen but less than the other six, who are all studs in the making and require no introduction. FWIW, Nick Markakis, Andy Marte and Stephen Drew are available in my minor league drafts. Andy Marte wouldn’t be except for the trade to the AL. Neither would Stephen Drew but for remaining unsigned at my 2005 draft.

Delmon Young was taken two years ago. Carlos Quentin was taken 4th overall last season. Finally, Jason Kubel was drafted as a DL player and has no chance of not being protected this season even if he begins the year in AAA.