2008 ETAs

As there are only 11 players estimated to arrive in 2008, I can more easily list them.

C SEA Jeff Clement
2B SF Marcus Sanders
2B LA Blake DeWitt
SS AZ Justin Upton
SS ATL Elvis Andrus
OF DET Cameron Maybin
OF AZ Carlos Gonzalez
SP CIN Homer Bailey
SP MLW Mark Rogers
LHP LA Scott Elbert
LHP HOU Troy Patton

There are two things the four pitchers have in common - good strikeouts and NL organizations. Patton has the best control (28 walks in 119.2 innings wth 132 Ks.) Rogers has the worst control (70 walks in 98.2 innings with 109 Ks.). Betwen the other two, Bailey had slightly more Ks and more walks (125 in 103.2 innings versus 128 in 115 innings and 62 BB versus 57,) and Elbert was harder to hit (83 hits versus 89.)

Because Patton has the best control and is left-handed, I'd go with him ahead of the other three if I had to do so, but I wouldn't take that chance over any of the hitters. As I play in NL-only leagues, that means Sanders, DeWitt, Upton, Andrus and Gonzalez. There was no way Sanders, Upton or Andrus was making it out of my draft this season, and this was prior to John Manuel's rankings. Even Carlos Gonzalez was considered for a late first round pick after the publication of Baseball America's Top Ten for the D'backs but before the acquistion of Chris Young (another 2nd round pick of mine last season.)

I do not know why there would only be NL pitchers in the 2008 ETAs, but I do understand there being fewer of them than hitters. With pitchers seemingly getting hurt more frequently combined with the necessarily young ages of players projected three years out, one would expect less. Why there are no AL arms is harder to discern. It may be the case that AL teams tend towards drafting hitters due to the DH. Maybe NL teams know a pitcher can be developed more quickly because they do not face as deep line-ups because the pitcher hits. Maybe it is just random.

If the M's hadn't just signed Kenji Johjima to a three-year deal, I would be prone to take Jeff Clement in the late first/early second round, but the Johjima signing, and expectations of success, makes me think Clement could be had in the same spot in 2007. With that, I may consider him as one of the last picks of a two-round minor league draft. I wish I had more on Maybin, but he signed too late to get any professional ABs after his high school graduation. My guess he isn't a consideration until 2008.

But that is when John Manuel says he will arrive in the majors! Clearly he has to move fast to meet JM's prognostication.