The lack of success with the minor league pitchers drafted in 2003 by my NL-only league led me to see what the splits are in John Manuel's essential Prospect Pulse column.
2006 ETA: 20/19
2007 ETA: 23/7
2008 ETA: 7/4
What to make of that? Certainly, he finds it easier to project pitchers' ETA for the closest season. This makes sense intuitively as successful AA and AAA pitchers are on the cusp of a call-up. 11 of the 19 projected ETAs had a cup of coffee last season. The other 8 all pitched in AA or higher.
Interestingly, he has Cole Hamels as a 2006 ETA. I have been touting this possibility since mid-January. Of course, he also has Minnesota starting pitcher Glenn Perkins doing the same, but that one I missed.
Why? Because the Twins don't have enough room for Baker and Liriano right now.
Perkins was the Twins 1st round pick in 2004 out of U of Minnesota. He dominated Rookie and Low A after that draft - 60.1 innings, 41 hits, 16 BBs and 71 strikeouts.
He began 2005 in High A, dominated it (55 innings, 41, 13, 66 strikeouts) and was promoted to Double A New Britian of the Eastern League. There he hit his first speed bump - 79 innings, 80 hits, 35 BBs, 67 strikouts.
He kept the ball in the park, but his ERA more than doubled from 2.13 to 4.90. I do not think he will make a debut this year with JD Durbin and Boof Bonser in AAA and Baker or Liriano in the major league bullpen.
Actually, I can see Bonser getting a bullpen role after striking out more than one per inning in AAA Rochester. His strikeout rate increased for the third season in a row last year. He gave-up too many HRs (22), but a foot-wetting in middle relief seems right.
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