Barry Zito is a difficult player to value. His real life hype seems disconnected from his Rotisserie performance. He was great in 2002 (23 W/2.75 ERA and 1.13 WHIP) but that seems to be a looooong time ago. Yet, somehow, it seems to be the only explanation for his continued good press.
He followed up that CY Young season with 14, 11 and 14 wins the next three seasons. His ERA rose the following two seasons before going down last season. His strikeout rate was very good in 2001 and worrisome in 2003, but seems to have settled at his Cy Young level of approxiamately 7 per 9 innings. It is not good enough to be noteworthy (160 Ks in 200 innings does not cause heads to turn), but it is not so bad to note either (120 Ks in 200 innings would do that.)
The only difference I can discern between his OK 2005 and his nadir in 2004 is hits allowed. He gave-up more than 9 per 9 innings in 2004. In 2005 he rebounded to his 7 per 9 career nor.
My guess is a team can safely project Zito repeating his 2005 performance. This is worth $18 or $19 in a keeper league.
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