Wes Bankston and Elijah Dukes

I wasn't surprised by John Manuel's 2007 ETA for Wes Bankston. He is the top Devil Ray prospect at 1B, and Travis Lee is only under a one-year contract. Bankston finished 2005 at AA and that puts him on the cusp of a major league call-up.

Last summer, I noted his decreased walk rate after the High A promotion. He finished AA with 30 bases-on-balls in 301 ABs. His BB/AB ratio in A ball between 2004 & 2005 was 88:532. That was the type of plate discipline that made him one of my 2nd round picks last season. If he recovers that rate, he will be a Roto stud. If he doesn't, he will have some short-term value but not enough the extend on a Roto contract.

The biggest 2007 ETA surprise was fellow Montgomery Biscuit, Elijah Dukes. He had only made news for emotional problems. I know there are major leaguers with these types of issues, but a minor leaguer may not get the pass a major leaguer does; thus the surprise at the 2007 ETA.

I liked Dukes enough based on his 10 HR/30 SB in 2004 to take him in the 2nd round last year. Encouragingly, he cut down his total strikeouts at AA in more ABs (97 in 374 ABs in 2004/83 in 446 ABs in 2005) and boosted his HRs from 10 to 18. But the headaches that accompany players with emotional problems made me think he wouldn't get a chance for a few more years. (Nevermind the glut of OF talent in Tampa Bay.)

However, John Sickels notes in The Baseball Prospect Book 2006 that "one informed source...says Dukes is actually a very bright guy who is strongly motivated to succeed on the field, but...came from a disatrous family and soical environment...." Here is hoping the first part came overcome the second.

John S. also rates Dukes' skill package as B+/A-. If Dukes can overcome, then he could be a serious sleeper by summer's end. (Read: I can deal him in a bail trade to get/stay in the money.)